Economist Bob Morgan Forecasts a Growing Economy in 2015
Citizens National Bank recently hosted their annual “Economic Forecast” events. Bob Morgan, Senior Consultant for Austin Associates, LLC applied his insights into a prediction for 2015’s economic outlook. This year, his message was more optimistic than recent years as he forecasted economic growth for 2015 and beyond.
According to Mr. Morgan, the average time it takes for the economy to fully recover from a recession is 8-10 years. Following the ’08-’09 recession, this historical trend would suggest a full recovery at some point in the 2016-2018 timeframe. Morgan also referenced strong growth in 2014, attributing the upswing to several key factors: job growth acceleration, unemployment decline, contained inflation, increased auto sales, higher consumer confidence, escalating business fixed investments, and a steep decline in the trade deficit.
Here is a summary of Morgan’s 2015 economic forecast:
- Consumer final demand will accelerate
- Manufacturing and construction will continue to lead the economy
- The housing sector will improve
- Job growth will average more than 200,000 per month
- Unemployment will drop to 5.5%
- Inflation will move above 2%
- Corporate profits will increase
- There will be a 25% increase in the stock market in the next 2-2.5 years
- Overall modest but consistent economic growth, allowing for no speculative excesses (bubbles)
To watch Mr. Morgan’s presentation visit our YouTube page.
Note: There are several risk factors which could alter this outcome such as the housing and labor markets, demographic and lifestyle changes, low wage and income growth, foreign economic conditions, foreign political instability, rising interest rates, and long-term fiscal policy.